Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Update on Tennessee State Senate races

I thought I'd issue an update on my election forecast for the state senate in Tennessee for this fall. Right now its looking like the Republicans will have a 28 to 5 majority in the Tennessee State Senate after the November elections. Im moving that seat thats based on the northern side of I-40 headed out of Nashville going west toward Jackson from the lean GOP category to likely GOP. This was and still is in a way the democrats best shot at picking up a republican held seat.  But Im moving it into the likely GOP column because former State Senator Kerry Roberts won the primary two weeks ago and the incumbent Jim Summerville only received a paltry 15% or so of the vote. Mr Roberts also represented part of this district when he was previously in the Tennessee State Senate so he's already got a decent amount of name id and he's pretty much non-controversial unlike Summerville and his weird diatribes. The democrat challenger in this race is a decent person by all accounts but when the democrats allowed a 78 year old no name farmer named Charlie Brown to win their nomination for Governor this year. That pretty much killed any chance Mr. Gross and the democrats had of winning this seat.  It showed that the democrats in Tennessee are literally in shambles as far as party organization goes and that is a back breaker in state legislative races most of the time. By the way Jim Summerville switched to the Independent Party last week and its pretty telling by the reaction he got. It was basically have a good life sir.  As far as the rest of the state senate races go, pretty much nothing has changed all year. Ed Jackson(R) will in all likelihood win that open state senate seat thats based in the Jackson Tn area and stretches up too Dyersburg.  Also State Rep Paul Bailey(R) will probably win that seat thats based over on the Cumberland Plateau in Putnam County. He will be the first republican to represent that area in the senate in modern history if he does win it. Those three seats in the state senate are the only ones worth watching this fall because their basically the only ones that have any chance of being competitive. Ill be out with an updated forecast on the Tennessee State House later and in a few weeks Ill issue an updated forecast for the state legislative elections in Alabama this fall. That senate seat thats held by Senator Harri Anne Smith(D/I) down in wiregrass country near Dothan  is very close from what Im hearing so far in internal polling....

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