An independent poll out yesterday in north Mississippi, shows Congressman Travis Childers(D-Booneville) with a 51 to 42% lead over his expected GOP challenger Alan Nunnelee in this falls race. Now to the good news for GOPers. Charlie Cook has moved Hawaii's first congressional district into the toss up category. This seat is currently vacant due to the resignation of Neil Abercrombie who went home to campaign for Governor of Hawaii. This seat hasn't been seriously contested by the GOP since 1994 when a former Ross Perot aide ran against Abercrombie.