Monday, October 20, 2008

Election tidbits

We are now 15 days out from the election and the news is starting to really pick up. I saw two polls this morning from the north Mississippi congressional race between Travis Childers(D) and Greg Davis(R). One had Davis up by a 47-46 margin and the other one had Childers up 51-42. It pains me to say it but I think the one with Childers up by 9 is more accurate. I just dont think GOPers in the Tupelo area will vote for Davis in two weeks. Now lets move on to the south Alabama open congressional race in district 2. Bobby Bright(D) scored a huge coup today when State Senator Harri Anne Smith(R) endorsed him over Jay Love(R). Ms Smith ran against Mr Love in the GOP primary three months ago and apparently Mr Love hurt her feelings during that race. But the news isnt all that bad for Mr Love. Last week financial reports were filed and it said he has four or five times as much money left going down the stretch as Mr Bright does and moved the seat from a toss-up to lean republican over the weekend. So Mr Bright desperately needed this endorsement today. Final tidbit is two new polls released over the weekend in Florida. The poll conducted by surveyusa shows John McCain up 49-47 over Obama in the sunshine state. The other poll was conducted by the Tarrance Group and it shows Tom Rooney(R) up by a 52-25 margin over Congressman Tim Mahoney(D).


jackisduhman said...

Mr Turnbow have you seen any polls in the Vance Dennis and Stan Wheeler race?

Mr Turnbow said...

Jack, Vance Dennis should win. But keep this in mind, polling in these state house races can be iffy at times when it comes to accuracy. Earlier this year a respected polling firm in Birmingham did a poll on a State House race in north Alabama. Their poll showed the race tied four days before the special election for that seat. Well when election day rolled around, the democrat in that race ended up winning by a 60-40 margin. So looking at polls in races like the one with Dennis and Wheeler can lead a person down the wrong path in determining where the race is at this moment.

Winston said...

I'm in that Tupelo area and Davis will roughly split it. And quite a bit of it will simply skip the race on the ballot (not totally on board with Davis, but not willing to actively vote for a Democrat). Davis is up in basically what's left of the district.

The feel on the ground is that Davis has all the momentum. It goes against trends and you won't read it in the paper, but Davis has a good chance to win. Childers released a push poll that showed him up 12, but Davis had one within the same period that showed stat. tie and it was prior to Davis beginning to advertise (Childers had started). The 47-46 polls is most likely the more accurate poll. And if you throw in that the DCCC started attack ads against Davis last week, one would wonder why they would waste time and money if they truly believed Childers was way ahead.

Dig deep and down to Bubba and you see how Davis is likely to buck the trends this year.