Wednesday, January 21, 2015

A look at the elections in the Magnolia state so far

After taking a quick look at who is filing to run for office this year it looks like the democrats have still got a lock on the county offices in Mississippi. Up in northeast Mississippi for example the only republican to file too run for Sheriff so far is Lee County Sheriff Jim Johnson(R). The candidates filing to run for sheriff in the other northeast Mississippi counties are all democrats so far. This also rings true for all the other county offices in the northeastern section of the state as well. Also it'll be interesting to see what happens to the remaining white democrats in the legislature this year. We may see one or two switch parties before the filing deadline late next month. We've already had a couple announce their retirements as well. Right now in the Mississippi State Senate there are 8 white democrats(1 woman) left in that chamber and over in the State House there are 22 white democrats(2 women) left. Given the overall trends in other deep south states over the past few years you would guess those numbers will decrease come November of this year. But the Mississippi GOP is still pretty weak on the county level as the early filing returns indicate and when compared to the neighboring GOP state parties as well. Will that hurt them come November in these state legislative races? Probably not considering they have a 32 to 20 majority in the state senate and a 65 to 57 majority in the state house and their running under a GOP drawn redistricting plan for the first time since the Civil War. But it bears watching when the rubber meets the road this fall in the legislative races...

Thursday, December 4, 2014

The white democrats are even vanishing on the federal level in the deep south

We are now two days out from the run-off elections in Louisianna and the latest polls show the republicans are going to defeat 18 year incumbent US Senator Mary Landrieu(D), former Governor Edwin Edwards(D) and another democrat. If those numbers hold there will be a grand total of eight white democrats(6 US HOUSE and 2 US SENATE) left in Congress from the deep south states of Arkansas,Lousianna, Mississippi,Alabama,Georgia, South & North Carolina,Virginia,Kentucky and Tennessee. The good news for the democrats is that they shouldn't have much of a problem holding those seats in 2016. The bad news is, its a far cry from the way it use to be prior to 2000 when democrats controlled over two thirds of the seats in these states in Congress.

Monday, December 1, 2014

The case of the vanishing southern white democrats

Right now in the new Alabama State Legislature there are only 6 white democrats left in both houses. All five in the state house represent districts north of Birmingham. The only female is Patricia Todd who represents a district in downtown Birmingham and is also the only openly gay member in either chamber. The other four are what they call yellow dog democrats. You have Marcel Black from Tuscumbia and Johnny Mack Morrow from Red Bay in the Shoals area. You have Craig Ford from Gadsden and Richard Lindsay from the northeast area of Alabama. The GOP will probably win all four of these seats when those four gentlemen leave. In the Alabama State Senate there's only one white democrat left and thats two term senator Billy Beasley from down in the Montgomery area. He basically is in the same type of situation that Congressman Steve Cohen is in in Memphis. He represents a minority majority district and he benefited in an open race four years ago when a couple of black candidates split the black vote. Since he voted the will of his district over the past four years and provided good constituent service to his district. He was able to sail to re-election this year in a district that is nearly seventy percent black. In Tennessee now, there are only two white democrats left in the State Senate and both of those represent districts in Nashville and Memphis. In all theres only five democrat state senators left in Tennessee now and all five of them represent districts in Nashville and Memphis. In the Tennessee State House, theres only two white democrats left now that represent districts that are west of Nashville. Craig Fitzhugh from Ripley and David Shepherd from Dickson. Mr Shepherd only won by 16 votes last month so thats a seat the GOP will really be after in 2016. You also have a handful of white liberal democrat who represent districts in Nashville. The others are Joe Pitts in Clarksville, John Mark Windle in Livingston and Kevin Dunlap from over on the Cumberland Plateau.  The GOP will probably go hard after those three in 2016 as well. Also it'll be interesting to see how white democrats will fare in Mississippi's state legislative elections eleven months from now. This will be the first election they've had since the GOP passed re-districting bill went into effect.

Saturday, October 18, 2014

I strongly urge a NO vote on Amendment 2 in Tennessee

If you live in Tennessee and you plan on voting over the next two weeks I strongly urge a NO vote on Amendment 2. The ultimate reason why I come down on the side of NO on this is that there are untold amounts of Tennesseans from Dyersburg to Bristol and from Ooltewah to Beale Street who have had their lives shattered by either directly fighting for democracy in Iraq and Afghanistan over the past thirteen years  or having family members or close friends fight over there.  There are people in Tennessee who have lost limbs or given their lives over there and the reason why they went is they wanted to bring democracy to those two countries. But here we have some people in Tennessee who are walking around with their heads held high over the past few weeks looking down on the common man and telling them that they need to give up their right to vote for state judges.  So they can implement a system like we currently have in Washington and we all know how great the system in DC works.  I dont know about any of you but I dont have the right to look a vet in the eye in some place like Linden or Red Bank, Tn who had his limbs blown off in Iraq and tell him he doesnt deserve the right to vote for state judges in his home state and I wonder what makes the Phil Bredesens,Fred Thompsons and Bill Haslams think they have that right.If this amendment passes then you can mark my words they will be back in a few years to try to take away your right to vote for yet another office.  We already had one bill in the legislature last session that wanted to take away your right to vote for the US Senators.  This is very troubling especially during this day and time seeing so many so called leaders in BOTH parties seeking to take away our right to vote for particular offices.  It even happened in my adopted hometown of Cullman, Al. back in the spring when the legislature  took away Cullman Countains right to vote for school superintendent.  What happened in Cullman was even sneakier and more low down. The backers of that measure went to the local Red Elephant Club(thats a fan club for Alabama football fans) and then to the local Auburn club and they got the members of those two clubs to go out into the county and campaign for it. It was enough to give you a stroke watching them convince people to give up their right to vote for School Superintendent and ending each conversation with a Roll Tide or War Eagle. In the simplistic words of my late father "That just ain't right boy" really isn't really isn't.  Thats why I urge all of you in Tennessee to vote NO on amendment 2...lets stop this madness before it gets worse.

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Drama,polls and more drama in Alabama politics

I just finished reading Mike Hubbard's book again on how the GOP swept to power in Alabama back in 2010. I highly recommend the book to those of you who havent read it yet. He makes some interesting points in the book. One is how their polling was showing Former Senate Majority Leader Zeb Little(D-Cullman) down by nearly 20 points from the summer of 2010 on. That explains why he went so negative on Paul Bussman right after the run off. The other thing I found interesting is how dirty Lowell Barron played. They suspect he hired strippers from the infamous "Boobie Bungalow" stripclub on I-65 in Ardmore and sent them to Shad McGill's house in the middle of the night and he also had a photographer hiding in the bushes hoping to snap pics of McGill with the strippers. Hubbard also claims Lowell hired someone to drive a car through McGill's business. My friends, Lowell Barron was something else I mean and those stories in Hubbard's book only scratch the surface of what he did over the years. He also talks about how Ken Guin played dirty as well and how the tidal wave started in the spring of 2009 for the GOP and slowly built to a Tsunami by election day in 2010. One ironic footnote...he briefly mentions at thee end how they passed tough ethics reform legislation before Governor Riley left office in December 2010. Its ironic because those same reforms are what Attorney General Luther Strange is trying to get a grand jury in Auburn to indict Hubbard on right now. Its a very interesting book though for the political junkie out there and its available on Amazon. I highly recommend it....

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Update on Tennessee State Senate races

I thought I'd issue an update on my election forecast for the state senate in Tennessee for this fall. Right now its looking like the Republicans will have a 28 to 5 majority in the Tennessee State Senate after the November elections. Im moving that seat thats based on the northern side of I-40 headed out of Nashville going west toward Jackson from the lean GOP category to likely GOP. This was and still is in a way the democrats best shot at picking up a republican held seat.  But Im moving it into the likely GOP column because former State Senator Kerry Roberts won the primary two weeks ago and the incumbent Jim Summerville only received a paltry 15% or so of the vote. Mr Roberts also represented part of this district when he was previously in the Tennessee State Senate so he's already got a decent amount of name id and he's pretty much non-controversial unlike Summerville and his weird diatribes. The democrat challenger in this race is a decent person by all accounts but when the democrats allowed a 78 year old no name farmer named Charlie Brown to win their nomination for Governor this year. That pretty much killed any chance Mr. Gross and the democrats had of winning this seat.  It showed that the democrats in Tennessee are literally in shambles as far as party organization goes and that is a back breaker in state legislative races most of the time. By the way Jim Summerville switched to the Independent Party last week and its pretty telling by the reaction he got. It was basically have a good life sir.  As far as the rest of the state senate races go, pretty much nothing has changed all year. Ed Jackson(R) will in all likelihood win that open state senate seat thats based in the Jackson Tn area and stretches up too Dyersburg.  Also State Rep Paul Bailey(R) will probably win that seat thats based over on the Cumberland Plateau in Putnam County. He will be the first republican to represent that area in the senate in modern history if he does win it. Those three seats in the state senate are the only ones worth watching this fall because their basically the only ones that have any chance of being competitive. Ill be out with an updated forecast on the Tennessee State House later and in a few weeks Ill issue an updated forecast for the state legislative elections in Alabama this fall. That senate seat thats held by Senator Harri Anne Smith(D/I) down in wiregrass country near Dothan  is very close from what Im hearing so far in internal polling....

Saturday, July 26, 2014

Can TJ Barker benefit from Joe Carr's expected success in Hardin County, Tn.

Its expected by a lot of observers that Joe Carr is going to do extremely well in rural counties across Tennessee in twelve days thanks mainly to anger among grassroots Tea Party type people and one of those counties he's expected to carry if he wins is the Hardin/Savannah, Tn area. There are a lot of angry grassroots conservative republicans in Tennessee and their mad at Lamar Alexander for a variety of reasons ranging from him working with Obama to the fact that he's been around for it seems like forever. So your probably wondering well what does this have to do with TJ Barker's campaign for Hardin County, Tn. Sheriff against incumbent Sammy Davidson. Well here's why their linked....if the grassroots conservative Tea Party crowd comes out in force in twelve days as expected to try and take down Lamar at the ballot box. Then whose to say that those people will be so mad that they won't continue down the ballot after the US Senate race voting against all the incumbents especially the longtimers like Sheriff Sammy Davidson who has been around elected office for about as long as Lamar has? Just something to consider as the August 7 primary draws closer....