Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Update on Tennessee State Senate races

I thought I'd issue an update on my election forecast for the state senate in Tennessee for this fall. Right now its looking like the Republicans will have a 28 to 5 majority in the Tennessee State Senate after the November elections. Im moving that seat thats based on the northern side of I-40 headed out of Nashville going west toward Jackson from the lean GOP category to likely GOP. This was and still is in a way the democrats best shot at picking up a republican held seat.  But Im moving it into the likely GOP column because former State Senator Kerry Roberts won the primary two weeks ago and the incumbent Jim Summerville only received a paltry 15% or so of the vote. Mr Roberts also represented part of this district when he was previously in the Tennessee State Senate so he's already got a decent amount of name id and he's pretty much non-controversial unlike Summerville and his weird diatribes. The democrat challenger in this race is a decent person by all accounts but when the democrats allowed a 78 year old no name farmer named Charlie Brown to win their nomination for Governor this year. That pretty much killed any chance Mr. Gross and the democrats had of winning this seat.  It showed that the democrats in Tennessee are literally in shambles as far as party organization goes and that is a back breaker in state legislative races most of the time. By the way Jim Summerville switched to the Independent Party last week and its pretty telling by the reaction he got. It was basically have a good life sir.  As far as the rest of the state senate races go, pretty much nothing has changed all year. Ed Jackson(R) will in all likelihood win that open state senate seat thats based in the Jackson Tn area and stretches up too Dyersburg.  Also State Rep Paul Bailey(R) will probably win that seat thats based over on the Cumberland Plateau in Putnam County. He will be the first republican to represent that area in the senate in modern history if he does win it. Those three seats in the state senate are the only ones worth watching this fall because their basically the only ones that have any chance of being competitive. Ill be out with an updated forecast on the Tennessee State House later and in a few weeks Ill issue an updated forecast for the state legislative elections in Alabama this fall. That senate seat thats held by Senator Harri Anne Smith(D/I) down in wiregrass country near Dothan  is very close from what Im hearing so far in internal polling....

Saturday, July 26, 2014

Can TJ Barker benefit from Joe Carr's expected success in Hardin County, Tn.

Its expected by a lot of observers that Joe Carr is going to do extremely well in rural counties across Tennessee in twelve days thanks mainly to anger among grassroots Tea Party type people and one of those counties he's expected to carry if he wins is the Hardin/Savannah, Tn area. There are a lot of angry grassroots conservative republicans in Tennessee and their mad at Lamar Alexander for a variety of reasons ranging from him working with Obama to the fact that he's been around for it seems like forever. So your probably wondering well what does this have to do with TJ Barker's campaign for Hardin County, Tn. Sheriff against incumbent Sammy Davidson. Well here's why their linked....if the grassroots conservative Tea Party crowd comes out in force in twelve days as expected to try and take down Lamar at the ballot box. Then whose to say that those people will be so mad that they won't continue down the ballot after the US Senate race voting against all the incumbents especially the longtimers like Sheriff Sammy Davidson who has been around elected office for about as long as Lamar has? Just something to consider as the August 7 primary draws closer....

Monday, July 14, 2014

The latest poll in the GOP primary for US Senate in Tennessee has Lamar up by a 43 to 36 over Joe Carr and George Flinn comes in third with 7%. Folks, its going to be a doozy down the stretch here in the final 3 plus weeks....

Saturday, July 12, 2014

Can a Carr beat Lamar!?

I'll give State Rep. Joe Carr(R-Lascasses) credit, he's been running rings around Lamar Alexander on social media circuits over the last few weeks in their race for US Senator from Tennessee. But can he defeat him on election day in four weeks? That is the million dollar question. I think Carr will do extremely well in a lot of the rural counties where mainly tea partiers are in control. The big questions are how well will he do in the suburban counties around Memphis, Nashville,Knoxville and those areas in East Tennessee that have a tendency to elect moderate Kent Williams types of Republicans. I think its a foregone conclusion that because of George Flinn being in this race that the Memphis/Shelby County area is a lost cause for Carr at this point. As is Nashville and Knoxville where a lot of the rich moderate republicans  live who love and admire the type of republicanism that Lamar represents. So those areas are lost causes as well. But the good news for Joe Carr is that as we've seen with President Obama, you can win those areas by wide margins but still get creamed statewide in Tennessee. The good news for Carr also extends to his home area/GOP stronghold of Murfreesboro, Tn where there will be a huge turnout on election day thanks to heated races for Sheriff and Congress in that area. The questions I have though is how well will he do in Williamson County next door to Murfreesboro and how well will he do in Fayette and Madison Counties over in west Tennessee? Also how well will he play in rural east Tennessee which has a tendency to elect moderates? I think Carr will probably do reasonably well in these areas that I mentioned because the tea partiers are more motivated to vote than Lamar's grassroots supporters are. But will Carr's margins be big enough in the rural areas to offset Lamar's edge in Knoxville,Nashville and Memphis. That is the million dollar question that we'll find out the answer too on August 7.....

Wednesday, June 25, 2014

What can I say other than, I was wrong....

By all the polling over the last week and the general rule of thumb that incumbents(especially the elderly and one who has a mistress on the side while his wife is dieing from dementia) who are drawn into runoffs more often than not lose because their supporters arent as motivated to turn out the vote as the challengers are. It sure looked like Chris McDaniel was headed for a gigantic upset of US Senator Thad Cochran(R) yesterday but everyone(including myself) were wrong. When you look at the numbers you find that more people actually voted in the runoff than they did in the primary. That is almost unheard of in todays campaigns. You also have to hand it to Cochran's campaign team, they saw a loophole in the Mississippi law where democrats could vote in the runoff and they took advantage of it in a big way and it probably saved them from certain defeat. McDaniel's supporters are crying foul over the high turnout in black neighborhoods for Cochran  that usually vote heavily democrat but it was all perfectly legal so in the words of Frank Corder from last night...they should just suck on it. Speaking of Mr Corder and the rest of his friends in Tupelo and the state...you want to talk about sore winners. To be such "great self proclaimed christians" they sure put on a show last night on TV and twitter. They might want to ask their friend in Baldwyn,  Mr Aldridge what bragging about how great of a christian they are gets you. But back to the Senate race....so where do we go from here. Well Thad Cochran will cruise to victory over Travis Childers(D-Booneville) in November. My guess is he'll serve about another two or three years and then resign and let Governor Bryant appoint Haley Barbour or Tate Reeves to the US Senate to replace him. As far as Chris McDaniel goes....well lets be honest theres no way in the world Governor Bryant will appoint him to the US Senate after all thats happened. He will continue to serve in the State Senate and who knows if Jim Hood runs for Governor next year as most believe he will, then dont be surprised if McDaniel doesnt jump into that race. As far as the Tea Party and their supporters go this morning....I know there are a lot of hurt and disappointed people this morning and rightfully so but we can all take some solace in the fact that what last night and the defeat of Eric Cantor two weeks ago proved is that you really never know for sure whats going to happen in an election and that is ultimately a good thing because it puts a scare into everyone in politics from the challengers to most importantly the incumbents.....

Saturday, June 21, 2014

Update on runoff in Mississippi's US Senate race just 3 days out now

Chism Strategies in Jackson has a poll out tonight showing Chris McDaniel up by 8 pts(52 to 44%) over US Senator Thad Cochran(R) with just three days left until the primary. This will be huge news if it holds....

Sunday, June 8, 2014

Roundup of last weeks elections in Nick Saban country

Alabamians seem to be happy with most of their politicians judging from last weeks primaries in the land of the "lord and savior Nick Saban". State Rep Jim McClendon defeated State Sen Jerry Fielding in the GOP primary for that senate seat thats based in the Talladega area. Fielding switched to the GOP in 2012 and its always hard to win over voters who four years ago voted against you in mass. So that result wasnt even all that shocking to see. State Rep Mac Buttram in Cullman was forced into a runoff against Good Hope Mayor Corey Harbinson in the GOP primary on July 15. This race will be interesting to watch in the coming weeks because both candidates are well liked. Buttram is a Methodist minister and Harbinson is one of the youngest Mayors in the country and one look at Good Hope shows that hes done a great job during his reign as mayor. Harbinson probably starts out in the runoff as the favorite but it won't shock me either if Buttram wins. The Sheriffs race in Cullman did surprise me a little bit with first term Sheriff Mike Blakely(R) being forced into a runoff next month  against a little known Drug Task Force Agent who ran on a shoestring budget. Thats probably not good news for Blakely in next months runoff. Over in northeast Alabama for the senate seat that was held by longtime and very controversial senator Lowell Barron. Steve Livingston knocked off moderate State Rep Todd Greeson in the GOP primary so he's in all likelihood headed to the State Senate in January. The Mike Millican vs James Bonner race kind of surprised me with Millican winning that Hamilton based seat. As we look toward the fall unless something shocking happens the GOP will win every statewide office in Alabama this fall. Some of the races to keep an eye on in north Alabama this fall will be that senate seat thats vacant in the western part of Lauderdale County/Florence thats been held by democrats since the civil war. The GOP believes this will finally be the year they will capture that seat. Also the Sheriff's race in Colbert,Lauderdale and Limestone will be close as well. The GOP would give their spleens if they can capture those seats this fall. The seats in Lauderdale and Colbert are both open but the one in Limestone has been represented by Mike Blakely since 1982. But Limestone is drifting more and more to the right so its expected that the GOP nominee in that race will come very close to Sheriff Blakely this fall as they drift toward November. Also last weeks results in the Lauderdale/Florence area show that for the first time since the civil war more republicans voted in the GOP primary than Democrats voted in their primary. So thats a very good sign for the Lauderdale County/Florence GOP and their chances this November....