Thursday, October 1, 2015
So whats going to happen in Alabama with regards to Mike Hubbard continuing to be House Speaker? Thats the million dollar question right now. State Rep Phil Williams from the Huntsville suburbs announced today he wants to challenge Hubbard in a new vote for Speaker. State Rep Alan Farley said he regrets being on stage with Hubbard right after Hubbard was indicted. Numerous Republicans are expressing disappointment with the Auburn lawmaker after a judge unsealed his emails and made them public last month. Speaker Hubbard(R-Auburn) sent emails to folks like ex Governor Bob Riley literally begging for a job. He sent emails to others offering to use his influence as Speaker to help them if they hired him as a consultant. The emails were really bad from a pr perspective not to mention possibly criminal. I don't believe anything will come from this latest uprising by Huntsville area Republicans though. But make no mistake about it when Hubbard's trial gets under way in the spring even if he wins, he still might lose the Speakership depending on what comes out of the trial. Hubbard's argument is that Attorney General Luther Strange is trying to frame him to keep him from running for Governor against Big Luther in 2018 in the GOP primary. After reading these emails though Im not sure that argument will hold water any longer.
Wednesday, September 16, 2015
Lets start off with the obvious....Donald Trump isnt going anywhere. Unless he falls victim to the Edwin Edwards getting caught in bed with a dead hooker or a live boy scenario he isnt going anywhere. I keep hearing in some media outlets "should we take Trump seriously". You are darn right you should. He's a billionaire with near universal name id and his life has pretty much been an open book for the world to see over the past thirty years. Another winner of tonights debate is Carly Fiorina. Its going to be interesting to see how she deals with the Hewlett Packard stuff in the coming weeks as the media digs deeper into what happened there during her reign as CEO. Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush and Ben Carson make up the second tier right now. I think Cruz and Rubio would both make great Presidents. But I dont know if they'll be able to topple this anti Washington wave that Carson, Trump and Fiorina are riding in the GOP primary right now. As far as Jeb goes, lets be honest about something this would be a fourth bland Bush term in the White House. As we sit here in mid September I dont see how he recovers to win. Trump can blow him away in the money department and thats something Jeb's dad and brother never had to deal with in their runs. After that you have Christie,Walker, Huckabee and Kasich. If Trump falters you might see Christie take off...he has a lot of that Trump bravado. The other three are just boring white guys. My final thoughts concern Rand Paul. Ive been extremely disappointed in him. I would've never believed earlier this year that Paul would be doing this poorly. He was doing all the right things there from going into democrat colleges with his conservative message to speaking to minority groups aligned with democrats and his anti-war message of this country being sick of wars. I think looking back now that message probably appeals more to the general election crowd than the primary folks. Unless something happens he's probably done and will withdraw in the coming weeks. He's just starting his career as a politician so I dont believe he will want to do what his dad did and just become a gadfly. The good news for all the anti Trump people in the GOP is that you still have just over two months left for your candidate to hit their stride. Once we get to Thanksgiving the american people will zoom out for the holidays and when they zoom back in right after the new year it'll be time to vote at that point. So they have to go at some point over the next eight weeks if they realistically want to win the GOP nomination. I think the best candidate is Cruz followed by Rubio. But if Trump,Carson or Fiorina pulls it out I hope they will hit the proverbial gas and take it too Hillary. That lady is NOT qualified to be President by any means in my opinion...
Tuesday, August 11, 2015
We have a runoff between Megan Barry a left leaning city councilwoman and David Fox who is from the more conservative republican side of things. Mr Fox came out of no where in mid June to secure a spot in this runoff and so did Barry as well. They were both polling in the low single digits and were drastically outspent by Bill Freesman, Linda Rebrovick and Charles Robert Bone. But they both beat the odds in the end and made it into the runoff. So who will win this race next month? I think you have to give the edge to Ms. Barry at this time. President Obama carried Nashville/Davidson County both times that he ran for President and to be honest the GOP has never won a major office such as Mayor in this county. So the democrats and Ms. Barry have all these built in edges. But I wouldn't write off Mr Fox just yet. He's ran his campaign so far on what he calls the small stuff such as more sidewalks, improving traffic and ways of getting water. That kind of message appeals across both parties. Ms. Barry though has run a hard left campaign so far revolving around increasing the minimum wage, talking gay marriage and improving the pay of women in the city. In the end I believe the only way Mr. Fox wins is if his message prevails and its mixed with some leftover bitterness among the supporters of Bill Freeman, Mr. Bone and Howard Gentry. The partisan democrat leaning history of Davidson County is too much to overcome otherwise...
Friday, August 7, 2015
A lot of people are debating who won the first republican presidential debate last night. While I would love for Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio to ultimately be the GOP nominee for President. I think in the end this will come down to the way it is with pretty much everything else in life. The richest person in a battle nearly always wins and in this case that means either Trump or Jeb Bush will likely win the republican nomination for President in the end. What you'll be seeing today from the other 15 candidates is just a sideshow, money makes the world go around and thats especially true in national politics. Its essentially the political version of mother's milk, if you don't have it starting out then your time is very short unfortunately and the other fifteen candidates just don't have it...
Wednesday, January 21, 2015
After taking a quick look at who is filing to run for office this year it looks like the democrats have still got a lock on the county offices in Mississippi. Up in northeast Mississippi for example the only republican to file too run for Sheriff so far is Lee County Sheriff Jim Johnson(R). The candidates filing to run for sheriff in the other northeast Mississippi counties are all democrats so far. This also rings true for all the other county offices in the northeastern section of the state as well. Also it'll be interesting to see what happens to the remaining white democrats in the legislature this year. We may see one or two switch parties before the filing deadline late next month. We've already had a couple announce their retirements as well. Right now in the Mississippi State Senate there are 8 white democrats(1 woman) left in that chamber and over in the State House there are 22 white democrats(2 women) left. Given the overall trends in other deep south states over the past few years you would guess those numbers will decrease come November of this year. But the Mississippi GOP is still pretty weak on the county level as the early filing returns indicate and when compared to the neighboring GOP state parties as well. Will that hurt them come November in these state legislative races? Probably not considering they have a 32 to 20 majority in the state senate and a 65 to 57 majority in the state house and their running under a GOP drawn redistricting plan for the first time since the Civil War. But it bears watching when the rubber meets the road this fall in the legislative races...
Thursday, December 4, 2014
We are now two days out from the run-off elections in Louisianna and the latest polls show the republicans are going to defeat 18 year incumbent US Senator Mary Landrieu(D), former Governor Edwin Edwards(D) and another democrat. If those numbers hold there will be a grand total of eight white democrats(6 US HOUSE and 2 US SENATE) left in Congress from the deep south states of Arkansas,Lousianna, Mississippi,Alabama,Georgia, South & North Carolina,Virginia,Kentucky and Tennessee. The good news for the democrats is that they shouldn't have much of a problem holding those seats in 2016. The bad news is, its a far cry from the way it use to be prior to 2000 when democrats controlled over two thirds of the seats in these states in Congress.
Monday, December 1, 2014
Right now in the new Alabama State Legislature there are only 6 white democrats left in both houses. All five in the state house represent districts north of Birmingham. The only female is Patricia Todd who represents a district in downtown Birmingham and is also the only openly gay member in either chamber. The other four are what they call yellow dog democrats. You have Marcel Black from Tuscumbia and Johnny Mack Morrow from Red Bay in the Shoals area. You have Craig Ford from Gadsden and Richard Lindsay from the northeast area of Alabama. The GOP will probably win all four of these seats when those four gentlemen leave. In the Alabama State Senate there's only one white democrat left and thats two term senator Billy Beasley from down in the Montgomery area. He basically is in the same type of situation that Congressman Steve Cohen is in in Memphis. He represents a minority majority district and he benefited in an open race four years ago when a couple of black candidates split the black vote. Since he voted the will of his district over the past four years and provided good constituent service to his district. He was able to sail to re-election this year in a district that is nearly seventy percent black. In Tennessee now, there are only two white democrats left in the State Senate and both of those represent districts in Nashville and Memphis. In all theres only five democrat state senators left in Tennessee now and all five of them represent districts in Nashville and Memphis. In the Tennessee State House, theres only two white democrats left now that represent districts that are west of Nashville. Craig Fitzhugh from Ripley and David Shepherd from Dickson. Mr Shepherd only won by 16 votes last month so thats a seat the GOP will really be after in 2016. You also have a handful of white liberal democrat who represent districts in Nashville. The others are Joe Pitts in Clarksville, John Mark Windle in Livingston and Kevin Dunlap from over on the Cumberland Plateau. The GOP will probably go hard after those three in 2016 as well. Also it'll be interesting to see how white democrats will fare in Mississippi's state legislative elections eleven months from now. This will be the first election they've had since the GOP passed re-districting bill went into effect.