Saturday, October 18, 2014

I strongly urge a NO vote on Amendment 2 in Tennessee

If you live in Tennessee and you plan on voting over the next two weeks I strongly urge a NO vote on Amendment 2. The ultimate reason why I come down on the side of NO on this is that there are untold amounts of Tennesseans from Dyersburg to Bristol and from Ooltewah to Beale Street who have had their lives shattered by either directly fighting for democracy in Iraq and Afghanistan over the past thirteen years  or having family members or close friends fight over there.  There are people in Tennessee who have lost limbs or given their lives over there and the reason why they went is they wanted to bring democracy to those two countries. But here we have some people in Tennessee who are walking around with their heads held high over the past few weeks looking down on the common man and telling them that they need to give up their right to vote for state judges.  So they can implement a system like we currently have in Washington and we all know how great the system in DC works.  I dont know about any of you but I dont have the right to look a vet in the eye in some place like Linden or Red Bank, Tn who had his limbs blown off in Iraq and tell him he doesnt deserve the right to vote for state judges in his home state and I wonder what makes the Phil Bredesens,Fred Thompsons and Bill Haslams think they have that right.If this amendment passes then you can mark my words they will be back in a few years to try to take away your right to vote for yet another office.  We already had one bill in the legislature last session that wanted to take away your right to vote for the US Senators.  This is very troubling especially during this day and time seeing so many so called leaders in BOTH parties seeking to take away our right to vote for particular offices.  It even happened in my adopted hometown of Cullman, Al. back in the spring when the legislature  took away Cullman Countains right to vote for school superintendent.  What happened in Cullman was even sneakier and more low down. The backers of that measure went to the local Red Elephant Club(thats a fan club for Alabama football fans) and then to the local Auburn club and they got the members of those two clubs to go out into the county and campaign for it. It was enough to give you a stroke watching them convince people to give up their right to vote for School Superintendent and ending each conversation with a Roll Tide or War Eagle. In the simplistic words of my late father "That just ain't right boy"....it really isn't dad..it really isn't.  Thats why I urge all of you in Tennessee to vote NO on amendment 2...lets stop this madness before it gets worse.

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Drama,polls and more drama in Alabama politics

I just finished reading Mike Hubbard's book again on how the GOP swept to power in Alabama back in 2010. I highly recommend the book to those of you who havent read it yet. He makes some interesting points in the book. One is how their polling was showing Former Senate Majority Leader Zeb Little(D-Cullman) down by nearly 20 points from the summer of 2010 on. That explains why he went so negative on Paul Bussman right after the run off. The other thing I found interesting is how dirty Lowell Barron played. They suspect he hired strippers from the infamous "Boobie Bungalow" stripclub on I-65 in Ardmore and sent them to Shad McGill's house in the middle of the night and he also had a photographer hiding in the bushes hoping to snap pics of McGill with the strippers. Hubbard also claims Lowell hired someone to drive a car through McGill's business. My friends, Lowell Barron was something else I mean and those stories in Hubbard's book only scratch the surface of what he did over the years. He also talks about how Ken Guin played dirty as well and how the tidal wave started in the spring of 2009 for the GOP and slowly built to a Tsunami by election day in 2010. One ironic footnote...he briefly mentions at thee end how they passed tough ethics reform legislation before Governor Riley left office in December 2010. Its ironic because those same reforms are what Attorney General Luther Strange is trying to get a grand jury in Auburn to indict Hubbard on right now. Its a very interesting book though for the political junkie out there and its available on Amazon. I highly recommend it....

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Update on Tennessee State Senate races

I thought I'd issue an update on my election forecast for the state senate in Tennessee for this fall. Right now its looking like the Republicans will have a 28 to 5 majority in the Tennessee State Senate after the November elections. Im moving that seat thats based on the northern side of I-40 headed out of Nashville going west toward Jackson from the lean GOP category to likely GOP. This was and still is in a way the democrats best shot at picking up a republican held seat.  But Im moving it into the likely GOP column because former State Senator Kerry Roberts won the primary two weeks ago and the incumbent Jim Summerville only received a paltry 15% or so of the vote. Mr Roberts also represented part of this district when he was previously in the Tennessee State Senate so he's already got a decent amount of name id and he's pretty much non-controversial unlike Summerville and his weird diatribes. The democrat challenger in this race is a decent person by all accounts but when the democrats allowed a 78 year old no name farmer named Charlie Brown to win their nomination for Governor this year. That pretty much killed any chance Mr. Gross and the democrats had of winning this seat.  It showed that the democrats in Tennessee are literally in shambles as far as party organization goes and that is a back breaker in state legislative races most of the time. By the way Jim Summerville switched to the Independent Party last week and its pretty telling by the reaction he got. It was basically have a good life sir.  As far as the rest of the state senate races go, pretty much nothing has changed all year. Ed Jackson(R) will in all likelihood win that open state senate seat thats based in the Jackson Tn area and stretches up too Dyersburg.  Also State Rep Paul Bailey(R) will probably win that seat thats based over on the Cumberland Plateau in Putnam County. He will be the first republican to represent that area in the senate in modern history if he does win it. Those three seats in the state senate are the only ones worth watching this fall because their basically the only ones that have any chance of being competitive. Ill be out with an updated forecast on the Tennessee State House later and in a few weeks Ill issue an updated forecast for the state legislative elections in Alabama this fall. That senate seat thats held by Senator Harri Anne Smith(D/I) down in wiregrass country near Dothan  is very close from what Im hearing so far in internal polling....

Saturday, July 26, 2014

Can TJ Barker benefit from Joe Carr's expected success in Hardin County, Tn.

Its expected by a lot of observers that Joe Carr is going to do extremely well in rural counties across Tennessee in twelve days thanks mainly to anger among grassroots Tea Party type people and one of those counties he's expected to carry if he wins is the Hardin/Savannah, Tn area. There are a lot of angry grassroots conservative republicans in Tennessee and their mad at Lamar Alexander for a variety of reasons ranging from him working with Obama to the fact that he's been around for it seems like forever. So your probably wondering well what does this have to do with TJ Barker's campaign for Hardin County, Tn. Sheriff against incumbent Sammy Davidson. Well here's why their linked....if the grassroots conservative Tea Party crowd comes out in force in twelve days as expected to try and take down Lamar at the ballot box. Then whose to say that those people will be so mad that they won't continue down the ballot after the US Senate race voting against all the incumbents especially the longtimers like Sheriff Sammy Davidson who has been around elected office for about as long as Lamar has? Just something to consider as the August 7 primary draws closer....

Monday, July 14, 2014

The latest poll in the GOP primary for US Senate in Tennessee has Lamar up by a 43 to 36 over Joe Carr and George Flinn comes in third with 7%. Folks, its going to be a doozy down the stretch here in the final 3 plus weeks....

Saturday, July 12, 2014

Can a Carr beat Lamar!?

I'll give State Rep. Joe Carr(R-Lascasses) credit, he's been running rings around Lamar Alexander on social media circuits over the last few weeks in their race for US Senator from Tennessee. But can he defeat him on election day in four weeks? That is the million dollar question. I think Carr will do extremely well in a lot of the rural counties where mainly tea partiers are in control. The big questions are how well will he do in the suburban counties around Memphis, Nashville,Knoxville and those areas in East Tennessee that have a tendency to elect moderate Kent Williams types of Republicans. I think its a foregone conclusion that because of George Flinn being in this race that the Memphis/Shelby County area is a lost cause for Carr at this point. As is Nashville and Knoxville where a lot of the rich moderate republicans  live who love and admire the type of republicanism that Lamar represents. So those areas are lost causes as well. But the good news for Joe Carr is that as we've seen with President Obama, you can win those areas by wide margins but still get creamed statewide in Tennessee. The good news for Carr also extends to his home area/GOP stronghold of Murfreesboro, Tn where there will be a huge turnout on election day thanks to heated races for Sheriff and Congress in that area. The questions I have though is how well will he do in Williamson County next door to Murfreesboro and how well will he do in Fayette and Madison Counties over in west Tennessee? Also how well will he play in rural east Tennessee which has a tendency to elect moderates? I think Carr will probably do reasonably well in these areas that I mentioned because the tea partiers are more motivated to vote than Lamar's grassroots supporters are. But will Carr's margins be big enough in the rural areas to offset Lamar's edge in Knoxville,Nashville and Memphis. That is the million dollar question that we'll find out the answer too on August 7.....

Wednesday, June 25, 2014

What can I say other than, I was wrong....

By all the polling over the last week and the general rule of thumb that incumbents(especially the elderly and one who has a mistress on the side while his wife is dieing from dementia) who are drawn into runoffs more often than not lose because their supporters arent as motivated to turn out the vote as the challengers are. It sure looked like Chris McDaniel was headed for a gigantic upset of US Senator Thad Cochran(R) yesterday but everyone(including myself) were wrong. When you look at the numbers you find that more people actually voted in the runoff than they did in the primary. That is almost unheard of in todays campaigns. You also have to hand it to Cochran's campaign team, they saw a loophole in the Mississippi law where democrats could vote in the runoff and they took advantage of it in a big way and it probably saved them from certain defeat. McDaniel's supporters are crying foul over the high turnout in black neighborhoods for Cochran  that usually vote heavily democrat but it was all perfectly legal so in the words of Frank Corder from last night...they should just suck on it. Speaking of Mr Corder and the rest of his friends in Tupelo and the state...you want to talk about sore winners. To be such "great self proclaimed christians" they sure put on a show last night on TV and twitter. They might want to ask their friend in Baldwyn,  Mr Aldridge what bragging about how great of a christian they are gets you. But back to the Senate race....so where do we go from here. Well Thad Cochran will cruise to victory over Travis Childers(D-Booneville) in November. My guess is he'll serve about another two or three years and then resign and let Governor Bryant appoint Haley Barbour or Tate Reeves to the US Senate to replace him. As far as Chris McDaniel goes....well lets be honest theres no way in the world Governor Bryant will appoint him to the US Senate after all thats happened. He will continue to serve in the State Senate and who knows if Jim Hood runs for Governor next year as most believe he will, then dont be surprised if McDaniel doesnt jump into that race. As far as the Tea Party and their supporters go this morning....I know there are a lot of hurt and disappointed people this morning and rightfully so but we can all take some solace in the fact that what last night and the defeat of Eric Cantor two weeks ago proved is that you really never know for sure whats going to happen in an election and that is ultimately a good thing because it puts a scare into everyone in politics from the challengers to most importantly the incumbents.....